July 2016 crop forecast released
The Australian Pulse Crop forecast is independently prepared by Pulse Australia based on information gleaned from a number of sources.
The crop report issued July 21 was based information gathered in the first few weeks of July and since then a number of important factors have emerged including extensive waterlogging in western NSW and an increased incidence of fungal diseases in pulse crops due to the seasonal conditions.
“As a result we expect some of the area to be lost, and in other districts for yield to be reduced,” said CEO Nick Goddard. “Nevertheless, very heavy planting from CQ down to central NSW, and into Victoria will still produce a record crop. In fact there have been more pulse crops sown since the July forecast was produced.”
“Increased chickpea supplies from Russia and east Africa, along with increased pulse plantings in India are likely to have an effect on the global prices,” said Mr Goddard. “The increased crop size in Australia will have minimal impact on the global price and, in the end, growers who bring a chickpea crop to harvest this year will be enjoying prices well above the long term average, even if the price is down from the record high prices of last season.”
Download the July crop forecast. The next Australian Pulse Crop Forecast will be distributed to Pulse Australia members in mid-September 2016.
Crop forecast summary – July 2016
Seasonal conditions across Australia are almost perfect for pulses. Combined with a very large planted area across all pulses, but a record area for Chickpea, the forecast production tonnage is very high. To achieve this, growers need to manage the high risk of disease, and spring weather has to provide timely rain and mild temperatures.
The seasonal conditions continue to set Western Australia up for record breaking production in all but a few districts in the WA grainbelt. The general consensus is that with the current soil moisture levels across the grainbelt, and average rainfall for the rest of the season, a record crop can be expected for Western Australia.
Soils moisture levels across all port zones are high. In the Lakes region, soils are close to being waterlogged, while in the lower Albany zone and along the south coast to Esperance waterlogging is causing delays to weed and disease management along with reduced crop growth. To balance this, crops on well-drained soil types have very high yield potential.
Fortunately the below average rainfall received in the Kwinana and Albany zones in June was beneficial to prospects for crops in these zones. The northern districts in the Geraldton Zone, started dry to mid-May but have received significant rainfall events in late May and June.
South Australia & Victoria
Lentil production dominates the southern region in the same fashion as chickpea dominates the northern region. And the 2016 season is shaping up very favourably for pulse crops as they are looking excellent and thriving across Victoria and South Australia. The ‘weather gods’ continue to align for the southern region grain growers following a near perfect start to the planting season for May and June after the very dry summer period up to April.
Ninety-nine percent of the southern pulse crops were sown by the third week of June and the majority of bean crops had been planted by the second week of May.
Growing conditions are pretty much ideal for both states; crops are advanced, vigorously growing, healthy and clean.
Queensland & northern New South Wales
The 2016 autumn and winter season for the northern New South Wales and Queensland broadacre cropping areas has been like chalk and cheese, until this point of mid- July. In northern NSW, growers recorded good autumn rainfall to build the moisture profile, including those in the very dry western NSW regions. However on the Queensland side of the border, summer and autumn rains were small and sporadic, leaving some large paddocks with variable moisture levels and plenty of run off. With unseasonally warm temperatures continuing into June, winter crop plantings in the northern region have responded well with good plant populations established in most winter crops. The biggest point of note in these northern regions is the spread of planting dates. Starting from early April in Central Queensland with deep sown chickpeas and still continuing with chickpeas in mid-July throughout the region.
Southern New South Wales
Consistent rain events across southern New South Wales have ensured a full soil moisture profile going into spring. Crops were planted on time, with some dry sown, but received good rain whilst soil temperatures were still high, and have established well. Weather conditions in June and July have been wet and cold, but crops are still progressing well.
There will be an increased disease risk for all the pulse crops when temperatures start to increase in August and September.